2024 Third Quarter Supply Chain Risk Trends Analysis

Organized Crime Groups Drive Increase in Theft Activity  

CargoNet, a Verisk business and leader in cargo theft prevention and recovery, has released its analysis of cargo theft trends for the third quarter of 2024. The report highlights a significant year-over-year increase in theft incidents and evolving tactics employed by organized crime groups.

Key Findings

• Recorded 776 cargo theft events across the United States and Canada in Q3 2024, a 14% increase compared to Q3 2023.
• Total value of stolen goods exceeded $39 million for the quarter.
• Slight decrease of 1.6% in theft incidents compared to Q2 2024, though this gap is expected to close with delayed reporting.

Organized Crime Tactics
The primary drivers of cargo theft continue to be organized crime groups specializing in strategic forms of cargo theft that typically involve some form of document fraud, identity theft, and intent to steal the property they are being entrusted to transport.

1. Sophisticated Phishing Schemes: Organized crime groups have intensified efforts to gain unauthorized access to motor carriers' official email accounts. These compromised accounts are then used to bid on shipments and bypass compliance checks. This method has grown in popularity in response to much of the industry instituting policies that rate confirmation documents should only be sent to official emails.
2. Purchased Authorities: Previously centered around recently purchased authorities in California, organized crime groups are now primarily interested in authorities in states not thought to be high-risk for cargo theft, after many companies have instituted policies that they will not accept new carriers from the state of California into their network.
3. Enhanced Evasion Techniques: Organized crime groups that are stealing part of a shipment or stealing a whole shipment are now switching license plates, driver's licenses, and truck and trailer numbers between each pickup to combat growing reliance on publicly available FMCSA vehicle inspection data. Multiple pickups are being arranged in multi-day crime sprees, and stolen shipments are being staged at central collection points so that malicious actors can focus on obtaining as many loads as possible before the industry learns of their criminal activity.

Commodity Trends
Compared to Q3 2023, there has been a shift in targeted goods:

• Decreasing: Solar panels, motor oils, and energy drinks
• Increasing: Footwear, computers, high-end audio systems, and hard liquor

This analysis underscores the need for vigilance and adaptive security measures across the supply chain. Looking towards the final quarter of 2024 and beyond, CargoNet expects strategic theft crews will continue to evolve to evade compliance checks