2024 Second Quarter Supply Chain Risk Trends Analysis

July 11, 2024 - CargoNet, a Verisk business and leader in cargo theft prevention and recovery, today released its cargo theft data for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a substantial increase in theft incidents compared to the same period last year.

CargoNet recorded 771 theft incidents in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 33% increase compared to the second quarter of 2023. However, theft activity decreased by 10% from all-time highs established in the first quarter of 2024. CargoNet's analyst team noted slight behavioral shifts in the country's most prolific organized cargo theft groups operating in Southern California. Across the board, these groups evolved to be more discriminating in their shipment targets, stealing high-value freight like motor oil and computer electronics less frequently.

There were notable changes in the types of goods targeted in cargo thefts. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, CargoNet observed significant growth in targeting of vitamins and supplements, alcoholic beverage shipments (primarily liquor), and over-the-counter skincare products. In contrast, theft of vehicle accessories like tires and motor oils, footwear, and consumer electronics such as televisions and computers decreased notably. The average shipment value in the quarter was $150,711, and CargoNet estimates that $68.5 million in freight was stolen during this period.

Theft activity was highest in California, Texas, and Illinois. In line with the 10% decrease in activity from the first quarter of 2024, reported activity in the top 5 counties - Los Angeles Co, CA; San Bernardino Co, CA; Riverside Co, CA; Cook Co, IL; and Dallas Co, TX - shrank significantly. However, in most areas, activity remained relatively consistent. For example, while activity in Dallas County decreased, activity in Tarrant County grew significantly due to a surge of thefts around the western edges of Fort Worth, TX.

CargoNet expects cargo theft activity in the third quarter of 2024 to remain elevated. Organized cargo theft rings in Southern California continue to be the most prolific threat, but theft by deception schemes are growing in popularity across the continental United States, particularly targeted pilferage schemes and non-delivery of whole shipments. We anticipate that these methods of cargo theft will continue to increase in popularity.